Author Topic: Mean while, in Syria...  (Read 182 times)

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Onepoint

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Mean while, in Syria...
« on: December 08, 2024, 10:24:03 AM »
Russia couldn't save one of it's most staunch allies in the region.  50 years of Assad rule has been over thrown.  Not a fan of Assad but that conflict, like most others in Saharan, sub Saharan and western Asian countries  always gets coopted by terrorists and warlords posing as Islamists.  I would be surprised if this turns out any different, despite both sides efforts at keeping ISIS at bay. 

This was spill over from the "Arab spring" that the Obama admin welcomed, but turned out to be a meat grinder for many of the countries who participated, many are still chaotic and dangerous to their own people as well as neighbors.

Regionally it shows a significant shift in power, making Iran the premiere power broker.

 Also shows the weakness of Russia, they threw some significant assets in for Syria, many of which had to be brought back home to fight in Ukraine.  If Afghanistan was a black eye for us, Syria is for them, on top of the Ukraine war which is not going well.

 China also had some assets in Syria, I don't know to what degree, I had read some years ago they had weapons systems sold there and advisors for training.

The world is always changing.
Experience is the hardest kind of teacher, it gives the test 1st and the lesson after.

Courage is knowing it may hurt and doing it anyway.
Stupidity is the same.
This is why life is so hard.

thresher_593

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Re: Mean while, in Syria...
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2024, 07:01:49 AM »
Assad needed to go. Period.

What they get as a replacement may be worse. Or better.

Only time will tell.

Will the new regime tell the Ruskies and Chinks (And the US) to butt out or will they cozy up to some dictator for the bucks, or ruples or yuan?

Will the Russians have more assets to use against the Ukraine if they aren't helping the Syrians?

Just my opinion but the Israelis got the ball rolling by hitting Hezbollah so hard.
I'm just holdin' the tail. You guys are the one's pumpin' the cat.

Onepoint

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Re: Mean while, in Syria...
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2024, 08:23:10 AM »
Better for who? Assad was a tyrant who funded terrorism, over thrown by a group who is coopted by terrorists seeking a reginal caliphate. The victory that we helped significantly was celebrated by us immediately showering fireworks over them in the form of Jdams. The Shah of Iran was a monster, but his removal was not a net positive for Iran or the world.  Turkey also had some presence among the rebels, especially in the northern border region, and they have been moving away from moderate attitude to the west in general.

Still, this was Syrian self determination, more or less, and with it comes consequence, its up to them to make it positive or not, so we wait and see.

Kind of shows just how rare and special this countries founders vision was who could shift from the chaos of war and create a framework that worked to secure and increase liberties for its citizens yet maintain stability for most of a century, until it was corrupted by those with despotic intent. They had to envision what had never been, yet numerous countries that followed suit could not, even to today, successfully use that template that brought such prosperity.


As far as Israel goes,  I don't know how much of which it was that Israel helped the Syrian overthrow, or took advantage of their weakness as they were pressed by rebels, to take on Hezbollah without having the normal cross border support from Assad. The situation in Syria allowed them to make bolder moves without a real threat of reprisal and direct support by Syria.   

kind of a side note in that is Irans support of Hamas and their Oct 7 incursion leading to Israel's escalated response and destruction of Hamas and now targeting Hez was a serious miscalculation on their part.  They had to know a response was going to come, yet seemed to have no plan to deal with it, no coalition ready, and Syria being preoccupied trying to keep territory in the civil war to stop any Israeli advance.  Basically if they greenlighted the attack they sacrificed their primary proxy army in the region for little gain.  Iran is not shy of martyring people, but they have been cagey about using it to gain support among fundamentalists, but that attack was so horrific it unified opposition.  Of course its much easier to look in hind sight and think decisions are stupid, but maybe trying to do genocide in todays instant media world is an obvious non starter.
Experience is the hardest kind of teacher, it gives the test 1st and the lesson after.

Courage is knowing it may hurt and doing it anyway.
Stupidity is the same.
This is why life is so hard.