You know that are a lot of different scenarios out there on what MIGHT happen. It's possible that any or all of them could happen. I personally don't see a "Postman", or "The Road" scenarios having a high probability of happening. Society just doesn't disappear. It never has. Nuclear attack? Did society disappear in the 2 cities nuked in WWII? No it didn't. The reach of society may have been limited during some events, but it always came back and those that acted badly were punished.
Other than Bibicial based end of the world stuff, the probability of local/area natural event have the highest chance of effecting us. Some will effect local, or some , like Katrina, will effect entire regions.
We are now seeing (again IMO) the greatest threat is an over bearing government, not the lack of one. What we are seeing is the beginning of a communist take over. History has shown that for every communist/fascist take over there will a purge. They are engineering shortages. "If you control the food, you control the people."
After that the threat is growing (IMO) for an EMP/solar flare, and a possable pandemic, either natural or man made.
I agree, 100%, Wolfgang. The stories of those chased, persecuted, imprisoned, tortured, executed of WWII and the Warsaw Pact countries is a good starting point. No tyrannical gov't can take over without creating an 'underclass' to blame...the Nazis used the Jews, the Soviets used those with ANY wealth at all (even peasants), the Khmer Rouge used ANYONE with ANY education. We now have a system of "the ends justifies the means", and millions willing to do anything to 'get there'. "There" is always a vague "forward" slogan rather than reality, tho.
Right now, I bet if a serious move were made to 'crack down' on gun owners, tea party/dissident groups and the like (conservatives), the Left would be MORE than happy to crack some heads. It happens fast...there wouldn't be much of a buildup to watch to gauge how far we've gone. Look at the speed with which Egypt toppled Mubarak...BAM, it happens after a tipping point.
If the economy continues to stagnate/tumble (as I believe it will), you can be sure there will be groups to 'take the blame' for the REAL orchestrators. This is, also just my opinion, the FAR most likely thing we'll face in the next 1, 5, or 10 years. Poverty, increasing gov't regulation WAY past anything legal, and more and more police state behavior. There will be more crime; as a result, there will be more blaming of the 'gun culture', aka conservatives. And off it goes.
There is NO way those in power would allow a condition of lawlessness to occur....more the opposite, I think...too MUCH law (regulation) will be the norm. Heck, I mean - it already IS, isn't it?