Author Topic: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.  (Read 2181 times)

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Laufer

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Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« on: August 20, 2010, 02:59:55 AM »
Whether a possible House or Senate majority could happen, what would be the likely results for x39 and other calibers, taking into account the actual political realities right now?

Could there easily be both ammo and gun price deflation? Let's be frank and evaluate realistic possibilities, even if the GOP does Not win back part of Congress. All that is needed is voter complacency and widespread assumptions.

Assumptions happened before the presidential election and then panic broke out.

jrayborn

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2010, 08:48:22 AM »
My opinion is that prices stabilize about where they are, maybe a bit lower (say 10%).  This applies to ammo, I think gun prices stay about where they are.  However, if the GOP does not break the Dem's majority in congress then you will likely see prices going up.


greg212

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2010, 09:28:27 AM »
If the GOP gets the majority ammo prices will probably fall but I don't know how much.  If the Dems say in power ammo prices will stay the same because the Dems are already in power and ammo prices have stopped going up.  If you think prices will go up with a Dem victory then ammo prices should be going up now because they already won and are in power.
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J

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2010, 09:33:06 AM »
How much more do you really think they're going to fall? They already came down exponentially and AIM actually has ammo up at prices that were just as if not lower than  pre-Obama scare.

Pflug

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2010, 09:43:30 AM »
Don't see any real change with either outcome- either with guns and ammo prices or even the bigger picture

The uncertainty at the time of the Presidential election "sold" the panic- although the Democrats have seemed scared to rock the boat and upset gun owners this time around the GOP isn't going to make some sort of strong stand one way or the other.

At this point any deflation in guns and ammo price will be due to the economy- things getting being sold for less because nobody's spending money- hopefully we won't see prices going down in a backwards sort of way......

GOP victory this time around will likely lead to more of the same and the Dems being voted in next time around when the voters who are disgruntled now continue to be unhappy when nothing seems to have been fixed in the coming two years
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BigBill

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2010, 12:54:18 PM »
My tank will be topped out on ammo way before the election.  Its just the old boy scout in me.

With the war in iraq comming to a close  so quickly i think these is something else brewing.  One of the blackpowder companies just took a goverment order for barrels and halted the civillian production.  Something is up?

I'd grab what ammo you need now and some toilet paper too.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2010, 01:00:19 PM by BigBill »

Laufer

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2010, 12:54:24 AM »
Good points.

Pflug: My wife also noticed somewhere that if the GOP has some sort of majority by November, they could take most of the blame for any slow job growth, then lose the majority during the Presidential election.

lonewolf

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2010, 08:56:53 PM »
My prediction is you will prices start rising on ammo and firearms, if the GOP takes the November elections, cause rumors will fly that the Democrats will move to pass any and all legislation before they leave in January....

My gut is telling me that the elections is going to be staged with the vast majority of Democrats will win in states using the electronic voting machines...

Pflug

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2010, 09:18:22 PM »
Everyone knows the GOP owns the electronic voting machines.....................

As far as legislation- if you think about it there was a reason that not all of Congress comes up for reelection at the same time

Since the last price jump was caused entirely by idiot consumers it's tough to predict what might spark a new panic - it might be easier if you were of that mindset however  :lol:
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MisterDeadman

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2010, 09:50:14 PM »
It seems the GOP will certainly win the house this November.  Historically speaking, divided presidencyt and congress is good for markets, so hopefully things will improve.

In any case, the prices of guns will not significantlly deflate unless the republicans can legislate more sensible import laws and increase supply.  You may see a small decrease without any legislation because of decreased consumer worry (that the goods may be illegal soon thereafter), but only an actual increase in the amount of guns will cause their prices to significantly decrease (>10%).

Pflug

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2010, 09:54:38 PM »
And being there really is no shortage of guns to import, the big issue is less profit here from a weak dollar, looks like things will probably be the same for a while
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Laufer

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2010, 09:57:26 PM »
The link on the Garand forum, to the South Korean govt's comments about US White House obstacles to large quantity Garand/M-1 Carbine imports (SKSboards) is irritating and frustrating, but a small part of the picture.

This might have no realistic connection, but the article ("Middle East Train Wreck for Obama") right now on the Fox News website about Israel versus Iran is thought-provoking, to say the least.

« Last Edit: August 22, 2010, 02:24:08 AM by Laufer »

kiawahman

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2010, 10:42:48 AM »
I'd grab what ammo you need now and some toilet paper too.

Sounds like something John Wayne mighta said.

Can't argue with logic.

MisterDeadman

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2010, 03:36:19 PM »
And being there really is no shortage of guns to import, the big issue is less profit here from a weak dollar, looks like things will probably be the same for a while

Excellent point.  We will almost certainly experience a weak dollar due to our poor monetary policy (and a small likliehood that it will in turn be used to inflate our way out of debt).  Commercial ammo will certainly rise in price because of the increased price of commodities like steel and copper.

greg212

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Re: Ammo price trends if the GOP wins a majority in Nov.
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2010, 04:17:08 PM »
Let me throw a little light on the current dollar situation since this is my field.  First off the dollar right now is not weak.  Every time you hear about bad economic news across the global and stocks drop the dollar gets stronger.  This is mainly due to foreign investors buying dollars to pile their money into US government bills.  Despite what people and the media may say US government bills are still the safest debt to own in the world period. 

Now I just checked the forward points on both the Euro and Pound and both are relatively flat.  The 18 month forward points for the Euro is actually slightly negative -6 points, meaning Euros are slightly cheaper 18 months out than the currently are at the spot price.  The 18 month forward points for the Pound is -46.25 points.  So no the dollar is not predicated to get weaker.
"Among other evils which being unarmed brings you, it causes you to be despised."  -Niccolò Machiavelli The Prince; Chaper 14